A new CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, conducted among likely voters in next year’s Iowa Democratic Caucuses, finds Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders losing support, while Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg gain support. Among the other four of the top eight candidates, there is little change. … Given the number of […] Read more »
The most unpopular presidential election winner ever could win again in 2020
Liberty Vittert, Washington University in St Louis and Brendan Lind, Harvard Business School Donald Trump is the first president to ever be elected while being actively disliked by the majority of Americans. Trump was also the first person elected president who was significantly less popular than his counterpart. Most Americans […] Read more »
How proposed Democratic caucus rules make polling even harder, and how we crafted our best shot
The Iowa caucuses are arguably the most difficult assignment for any pollster. That is because relatively few people attend them, and people can, and do, change their minds in the caucus room. … Next year, a lot will change. The Iowa Democratic Party is finalizing rules that will add a […] Read more »
Do most Americans believe in climate change? The answer is more complicated than you might think.
… So how many Americans believe that climate change is caused by human activities? The answer is surprisingly complicated. … We find that minor and seemingly arbitrary differences in the way public opinion researchers ask questions about climate change can have major effects on their findings. CONT. Matt Motta, Dan […] Read more »
Are Voter Opinions on Trump as Stable as They Seem?
The great irony of the Trump presidency, one that is built on chaos and drama, is how stable it is. By that, I mean the stability of opinions of this president. Despite all of the twists and turns and tweets over the last three years, very few voters have changed […] Read more »
The Democratic Electorate
The current conventional wisdom, expressed for example in this NYT Upshot piece, as well as by Bret Stephens on MSNBC yesterday (June 5) is that the vocal “left” of the Democratic party has lost touch with the authentic base of the party, and therefore risks re-electing Trump by veering too […] Read more »