All three of the presidential candidates now leading the Democratic primary field are 70 years of age or older. Thirteen of the remaining candidates are 60 or under. These facts have been much written about, but do they matter? … My purpose here is less to explore the impact of […] Read more »
Joe Biden still bests fellow Democrats on electability, polls show
Poll of the week: A new Marquette University Law School poll from Wisconsin finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 51% to 42% in a hypothetical matchup. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is ahead of Trump 48% to 44%, while California Sen. Kamala Harris and Massachusetts Sen. […] Read more »
Caucus Chaos? A look at the Democratic National Committee’s opposition to virtual caucusing
In an attempt to ensure cyber security, the Democratic National Committee has disallowed Iowa’s plans to conduct virtual caucuses. What does this mean for Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status? Hear our take. Then, Patrick Moynihan, Associate Director of International Research Methods at the Pew Research Center, joins the discussion. Have you ever […] Read more »
What A 10 Person Democratic Debate Means
Last Thursday, ABC News finalized the lineup for the third Democratic primary debates, and only ten candidates will participate in just one debate. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates whether the field has been winnowed to ten and looks at the potential dynamic of third […] Read more »
How To Handle An Outlier Poll
It’s pretty rare that a pollster calls his own survey an “outlier.” But that’s exactly what happened last week after a Monmouth University poll showed an approximate three-way tie between Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute — an A-plus-rated pollster […] Read more »
Iowa’s Most Famous Pollster Faces Her Toughest Test Yet
… J. Ann Selzer, the head of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, first became the subject of national attention in 2008, when her survey correctly showed that Barack Obama would win the Iowa contest, thanks to unprecedented turnout among first-time voters. … Even as Americans have grown doubtful about […] Read more »