This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
Five Polling Trends from the Past Decade
As we enter a new decade, it may be useful (or at least interesting) to reflect on the major changes in polling during the past decade. The polling industry, especially that part of the industry that involves national polls conducted for news media consumption, is undergoing a major transition – […] Read more »
Why expectations matter in Iowa
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders could be surging at just the right time. He’s ahead in some of the highest quality polls coming out of Iowa with a week to go until the caucuses. History suggests that a win in Iowa could allow Sanders to take the lead in the national […] Read more »
Meet the new top tier of Democratic contenders, same as the old top tier
The polling floodgates have finally opened! Over the past few days, Emerson, Marist, Suffolk, YouGov, the University of New Hampshire, Fox News, the New York Times and our very own Washington Post polls team have all released surveys of Democratic primary voters. This new data shows that, with less than […] Read more »
The Sanders Surge
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses Sen. Bernie Sanders’s improvement in state and national polls just one week before the Iowa caucuses. They also debate whether reporting on former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s new book will pressure Republican senators to call witnesses in President […] Read more »
The Media Expectations Game Usually Hurts Nomination Front-Runners, But Not in 2020
The history of presidential nomination politics suggests that it’s a mixed blessing for a candidate to be considered a front-runner by the national media heading into the primary and caucus season. Of course, it’s better to be doing well in polls and fundraising, the usual metrics of pre-primary success, than […] Read more »