“Trust the polls” is the soothing mantra of the data nerd. While polls are snapshots of public opinion at a specific time, and they are fallible, in most circumstances, they represent the best picture of what America is thinking and are the most powerful predictor of eventual election results. But […] Read more »
Some Questions Already Seem Answered About Super Tuesday
It’s hard to remember an Election Day with so much uncertainty as voters go to the polls. And yet Joe Biden’s blowout win in South Carolina on Saturday — and subsequent steps toward consolidating the Democratic Party’s moderate wing — may have already answered many of the biggest questions about […] Read more »
How the media turned a ‘suspect’ survey into Trump fodder
ON THE OFF CHANCE that you weren’t watching President Trump address the American Farm Bureau Federation’s convention in January, here’s what he told the appreciative crowd: “A poll just came out — Wall Street Journal. It just came out. Look at this: ‘Farmer Approval of Trump Hits Record, Poll Shows… […] Read more »
Is Bernie Sanders winning or losing?
A week ago, after CBS News and NBC News/Marist polls showed former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in South Carolina shrinking to the mid-single digits, it appeared that Sen. Bernie Sanders was about to get another boost in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. … But after Saturday’s results […] Read more »
Buttigieg’s exit is better for Biden than Sanders
Pete Buttigieg’s exit from the presidential race adds another wrinkle to the Democratic contest ahead of Super Tuesday. The exact effects of the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor’s departure, along with Joe Biden’s blowout victory in South Carolina, are unknowable. Still, it’s pretty clear that Buttigieg getting out likely helps […] Read more »
The Problems Inherent in Political Polling
… When modern polling began, in the nineteen-thirties, George Gallup claimed that it rekindled the tradition of the town meeting, but most members of Congress considered it to be, as one wrote, “in contradiction to representative government.” In 1949, the political scientist Lindsay Rogers complained that “pollsters have dismissed as […] Read more »