Now that Democrats have settled on a presumptive nominee, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses their priors for the 2020 presidential contest. While seven months — and an unfolding crisis — separate us from election day, the 2020 election appears to have similar patterns to 2016’s — for now. The […] Read more »
Another lesson about context: Biden and young voters in 2020
Today, I thought I’d offer another lesson about why context is so important in political reporting and analysis — and how it can affect our view of the 2020 presidential contest. On April 8, NBC News ran a piece online, “Progressive Youth Groups Issue a List of Demands for Joe […] Read more »
Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks
President Trump and Joe Biden begin the general election campaign locked in a highly competitive contest that remains fought along the lines of the 2016 presidential election, according to national and battleground state polls. If anyone holds the early edge, it is Mr. Biden. He leads by an average of […] Read more »
Pollsters find unexpected boon: Americans stuck at home willing to talk
Lonely Americans trapped in their homes because of the coronavirus outbreak are answering their phones to talk to political pollsters in big numbers, a reversal of fortunes for an industry that has recently struggled to connect with people. The Hill interviewed more than a half-dozen of the nation’s top political […] Read more »
The one normal thing about the 2020 campaign
… The 2016 campaign was known for having the two least liked major party candidates of all time. That seems unlikely to repeat itself. Indeed, while the 2020 campaign is likely to be one of the strangest campaigns in recent American history, the popularity of the two men who will […] Read more »
Trust in Trump’s Virus Response Is Falling. What Does It Mean for November?
Americans are rapidly losing faith in President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, according to national polls released over the past week. What’s more, some of that drop-off is occurring among groups that Mr. Trump will need to retain as he looks ahead to a difficult re-election battle in the […] Read more »