As Covid-19 rages in America, voters are giving President Donald Trump record low numbers on his coronavirus performance. Last week, we saw Trump score his worst ratings yet in an ABC News/Ipsos poll. This week he’s hit bottom in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University polls. But perhaps […] Read more »
Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016? It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden […] Read more »
How to read Biden’s massive lead in the polls
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls […] Read more »
The Electoral College: The Fringe of the Map Expands
Key Points• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.• Our […] Read more »
Forecast: The race between Biden and Trump is within the true margin of error
There is little doubt that former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead in the polls right now. He regularly posts double-digit advantages nationally and is ahead in the key swing states. If the election were held today, Biden would almost certainly be elected president. But the election is not being […] Read more »
Will enthusiasm save Trump in 2020?
538’s Nate Silver on whether or not enthusiasm will help Trump in 2020. This Week, ABC News Read more »