Even if you knew in advance about the “blue shift” that would occur in states like Pennsylvania — and we did know in advance about it! — it’s been hard to make enough of a mental adjustment for it this week. Numbers flashing across a TV ticker have a certain […] Read more »
Biden May Have Won The Election — But The Deep Partisan Divide In America Remains
… A plurality of Americans, including the vast majority of Asian, Black and Hispanic voters, backed the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate. A slightly smaller bloc, including the majority of white Americans and the overwhelming majority of white evangelical Protestants, backed the Republican Party’s candidate. … In short, what made Tuesday […] Read more »
Here are six big takeaways from the 2020 elections
… On average, the polls appear to have been off by about 2.5 to 3 percentage points this year. The absolute error in polls is not necessarily larger than in previous years. But, crucially, both public and private polls continued to overestimate Democratic vote share in Florida and in Midwestern […] Read more »
Where Polls Got It Wrong
In the run up to the 2020 election, many polls show Joe Biden and Democrats with a significant lead, both nationally and in multiple swing states. As NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben reports, pollsters are now confronting the question of how far off polls were and what caused it. NPR News The OPINION […] Read more »
Director defends Quinnipiac Poll after Trump says they were ‘wrong on every occasion’
The director of the Quinnipiac University Poll is defending the integrity of its surveys after they and other pollsters have come under intense scrutiny, including from President Donald Trump himself, after failing to predict the tight race between Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, along with various U.S. Senate races. CONT. […] Read more »
The polling industry blows it again
The pollsters got Donald Trump wrong — again. When all the votes are tallied, Joe Biden isn’t going to win the popular vote by double digits. Trump lost Wisconsin by a point, not the 17-point defeat one survey suggested. And Trump obviously didn’t go down in an election night landslide, […] Read more »