On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the composition of the U.S. government literally hangs in the balance with two U.S. Senate race runoffs in Georgia serving as arbiters. As time elapses from Election Day to January, what are the challenges for both parties? Then, Pfizer’s announcement of a potentially […] Read more »
2020 Post Election Poll Analysis of an Election Like No Other
As we have done, every two years in federal elections, since 1994, we once again conducted a post-election poll of 1,000 actual voters online who either voted early or on election day. The survey had an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The voters were interviewed on […] Read more »
Why did the polls undercount Trump voters?
… After studying 2016 election polling, the American Association for Public Opinion Research reported that it found no evidence of “shy” Trump voters. More recent studies challenged that, suggesting such voters might exist. Survey firms that correctly predicted the 2016 election have argued that they did so because of how […] Read more »
Why Couldn’t Democrats Ride the Blue Wave?
… So, what happened to the Democratic wave, if there ever was one? It is difficult for me to fathom that so many polls, conducted by dozens of pollsters from both parties using different methodologies, could all be wrong, and in the same direction. In my judgment, there was a […] Read more »
We predicted the states Biden would win 100 days before the election
… We developed a forecast of each state’s presidential vote based primarily on three fundamental factors: each state’s presidential vote in 2016; state economic conditions through June of the election year, and state presidential approval ratings based on surveys conducted in June and July of this year. … If Biden […] Read more »
‘A Black Eye’: Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again.
… For the second straight presidential election, the polling industry missed the mark. The miss was not as blatant as in 2016, when polls suggested Mr. Trump would lose, nor was the miss as large as it appeared it might be on election night. Once all the votes are counted, […] Read more »