President Joe Biden’s presidency is now six months old. You’d be forgiven if you didn’t realize how long Biden has been in office because Biden doesn’t generate anywhere near the same news interest (see Google searches) as his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, did. The lack of a topsy turvy […] Read more »
Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it.
… Candidates who are losing an election will always attack the polls as flawed, or worse, and some voters will take their word for it. Polling might never be free of “correlated errors” — where pollsters make the same mistake in multiple states, causing one party to be underestimated across […] Read more »
Why Biden Might Avoid the Policy Sinkhole That Swamped His Predecessors
The 2020 Democratic presidential primary was often described as a contest over whether the country needed a return to normalcy or sweeping change. Joe Biden may have found a way to split the difference. Democrats have proposed or enacted trillions of dollars in federal spending, usually under the seemingly nonideological […] Read more »
2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls
… In October 2019, the Executive Council of AAPOR proactively convened a task force to examine the performance of pre-election polls in the 2020 elections. The Executive Council appointed 19 members to the Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling from industry, nonprofit organizations, media, and academia to ensure a diversity […] Read more »
How pollsters are trying to fix election polls after 2020
Polls in the final weeks of the 2020 election campaign were farther off the mark from the election results on average than polls in any election in decades, according to a new task force report released Monday. The analysis, from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, suggests partisan differences […] Read more »
2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says
Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). The […] Read more »