All eyes — at least in Washington — are on the battle over confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Sexual assault allegations against him have stalled his nomination in the Senate Judiciary Committee, where it waits like a stalled tropical storm, unable to reach the floor for […] Read more »
There Are Two Gender Gaps—And the Gap Between Them Is Growing
The gender gap, produced by the relative pro-Democratic lean of women and pro-Republican lean of men in party affiliation and voting habits, has been a fact of American electoral life since the 1980s. … But gender differences in the composition of the parties become greater as we move up the […] Read more »
A fresh look back at 2016 finds America with an identity crisis
Two years after the 2016 election, there has been no single answer to the question: What happened? In an outcome that saw the popular vote and the electoral college diverge, theories abound, opinions are many and consensus fleeting. Now, a trio of political scientists have come forth with their answer […] Read more »
Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models
We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. CONT. Charles Tien (CUNY) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. […] Read more »
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical […] Read more »
Americans Are Shifting The Rest Of Their Identity To Match Their Politics
We generally think of a person’s race or religion as being fixed — and that those parts of identity (being black, say, or evangelical Christian) drive political views. Most African-Americans vote Democratic. Most evangelical Christians vote Republican. But New York University political scientist Patrick Egan has written a new paper […] Read more »