Obamacare didn’t just give more people health insurance. It also caused more people to vote. That’s the conclusion of a new body of evidence that strongly suggests that giving people coverage through expansions of the Medicaid program increases their likelihood of participating in the next election. Medicaid expansions seem to […] Read more »
Party Polarization, Ideological Sorting and the Emergence of the US Partisan Gender Gap
This article argues that the modern American partisan gender gap – the tendency of men to identify more as Republicans and less as Democrats than women – emerged largely because of mass-level ideological party sorting. As the two major US political parties ideologically polarized at the elite level, the public […] Read more »
It’s Not Easy to Predict How Immigration Will Affect the Midterms
In the closing days of the campaign for the midterms, President Trump has clearly decided that immigration should be the central issue of this election. … Mr. Trump’s focus on immigration has had real consequences, even though congressional candidates across the country have chosen to focus on other issues, like […] Read more »
A new poll shows the secret truth of 2018: Not much has changed in months
Here’s a remarkable thing about the 2018 election campaign: how little has changed. That is the lesson from the third George Washington University Politics Poll, which was just released today. I think most people know that we live in a world of strong partisanship, which is increasingly evident in congressional […] Read more »
Election Fundamentals in 2018
The modelers at FiveThirtyEight have made a compelling case that we should expect Republicans to pick up a seat or two in the upcoming U.S. Senate election. The purpose of this post is to show that this is essentially the same prediction we would have made two years ago, once […] Read more »
The Trump Legions: Despite their sudden rise, they didn’t come out of nowhere
… In “The Silent Revolution in Reverse: Trump and the Xenophobic Authoritarian Populist Parties,” Inglehart, Jon Miller and Logan Woods provide fresh insight on a subject to which Inglehart, at times writing with Pippa Norris of Harvard, has devoted much of his career: the ongoing tension between materialist and post-materialist […] Read more »