Ever since Richard Nixon coined the term “silent majority” in 1969, commentators have been obsessed with debating this voting bloc’s contours and character. … The silent-majority concept is inextricably intertwined with backlash politics of the sort promoted by Trump. The concept was perhaps best explained by historian Rick Perlstein, who […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Expanding the Map
Key Points• We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.• While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up […] Read more »
The Democratic candidates are unabashedly liberal. Is that what Democratic voters want?
Many political observers see the Democratic presidential candidates as veering to the left. As veteran political journalist Thomas Edsall writes, “Leading Democratic candidates are supporting bold progressive policy initiatives.” Even the supposedly moderate Joe Biden is proposing policies that are more liberal than Hillary Clinton’s, according to a recent study. […] Read more »
The Suburban Vote Isn’t as Blue as It Looks
My colleague, David Wasserman wrote a (typically) insightful analysis on GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop’s narrow win in Thursday’s special election in North Carolina’s 9th district. His main conclusion was that the special election continued a trend we’ve seen since 2016 of suburbs voting more Democratic, while small town and […] Read more »
Democratic Debate Analysis: Who Has the Right to Question Biden’s Competence?
It’s likely that even those analysts who love to declare winners, losers, and game-changing moments (a practice largely eschewed here at Honest Graft) won’t find all that much fodder in Thursday night’s Democratic debate. The biggest pre-debate media hype focused on the opportunity for a dramatic personal showdown between Joe […] Read more »
No, Trump isn’t Teflon. Scandals lower his approval among Republicans — if they see the news.
President Trump’s time in office has been a roller coaster of startling tweets, controversies and scandals. … Through all this, Trump can seem like Teflon: impervious to scandal. Democrats already dislike him, Republican partisans remain loyal, and Americans’ minds are hard to change. This dynamic can trouble those who believe […] Read more »