Party loyalty—and, by extension, loyalty to the president of one’s party—is a powerful force on Capitol Hill. Thus, the safe bet is that few if any congressional Republicans will cast ballots to impeach President Trump. That should protect the president from removal by the GOP-led Senate, and even if House […] Read more »
Republicans’ advantage on national security has faded — and Democratic candidates are responding
Until the most recent debate, the candidates for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination scarcely discussed foreign policy. Last week, that changed — prompted in part by a cascade of international events, including the Ukraine scandal, President Trump’s abrupt withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria, and Turkey’s immediate attacks. So […] Read more »
The Activation of Prejudice and Presidential Voting
As a candidate for President, Donald Trump defied recent norms for presidential candidates with several racially charged statements. Did that rhetoric—and the 2016 campaign more generally—affect voters’ support for Trump in his general-election contest with Hillary Clinton? Given prior research on prejudice and priming, a few research questions loom especially […] Read more »
Immigration and the Inevitability of Identity Politics in 2020
The 2016 campaign and the Trump presidency has focused on issues tied closely to Americans’ racial, ethnic, religious, and gender identities — and generated calls for both parties to reject “identity politics.” The challenge for both parties is that identity politics is increasingly baked into American politics. Even if Democratic […] Read more »
A More Decisive Electorate May Be Making Early Polls Better
With the 2020 election approaching, each week brings a new set of presidential poll results. As perennial as the election cycle itself, the arrival of early data is accompanied by analysts and forecasters wrestling with its value. In particular we wonder how much early polling can tell us about the […] Read more »
October Democratic Debate Recap: What Purpose Do Debates Serve?
Tuesday night’s Democratic debate fell into a familiar pattern: a discussion of the relative merits of single-payer health care vs. a public option early in the evening, a few awkward exchanges thereafter but no single revealing moment, and a silly closing question that inadvertently revealed the extent to which television […] Read more »