The American-ordered drone strike that killed one of Iran’s most powerful military leaders, Qassem Soleimani, has triggered retaliation from Iran and put American troops in the Middle East on heightened alert. It has also brought foreign policy to the top of the news cycle. How events unfold from here is […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
If Democrats nominate a woman for president, don’t try to make predictions about how she’ll do
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton arrives onstage during a primary night rally at the Duggal Greenhouse in the Brooklyn Navy Yard, June 7, 2016. Getty/ Drew Angerer Nathaniel Swigger, The Ohio State University Four women remain out of an original six in the Democratic primary for president: Sens. Elizabeth Warren […] Read more »
The Polarization of Reality
Evidence is growing that Americans are polarized not only in their views on policy issues and attitudes towards government and society, but also in their perceptions of the same, factual reality. In this paper we conceptualize how to think about the polarization of reality and review recent papers that show […] Read more »
Attacking Iran will not help Trump win reelection. Here’s why.
In the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog,” a political adviser manufactures a war to help a scandal-besieged president win reelection. This parallel came to many minds after President Trump ordered airstrikes that killed Iran’s Quds Force commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani. … The “rally around the flag” effect happens when […] Read more »
Want to know what will happen in 2020? Look to state polls for the answer
Before an election the media closely follows polls. Rob Crandall/Shutterstock.com Daniel R. Birdsong, University of Dayton Public opinion polls are ingrained in American politics. It seems like every day there is a new poll about the presidential election or impeachment or whether the public feels that the United States is […] Read more »