Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy. But does the standard presidential approval question actually […] Read more »
Five myths about bipartisanship
It is common for Americans to rue the absence of bipartisanship. Even expressly partisan figures like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and President Trump have called for more cross-party collaboration. Former vice president Joe Biden has said that “no party should have too much power.” And there is even a […] Read more »
Don’t Believe the Washington CW: Trump is no Shoo-In for Reelection
In less than 10 months, Americans will be heading to the polls to decide whether Donald Trump deserves a second term in the White House — assuming that he survives an impeachment trial in the Senate, as appears likely to be the case. Despite his chronically low approval ratings and […] Read more »
Trump’s abrasive personality might help him win reelection — if voters feel it’s a dangerous world
… Pundits and commentators often suggest that Donald Trump was elected despite negative coverage. Voters, according to conventional wisdom, want leaders who are likable — the kind of person you could have a beer with. In this view, if Donald Trump gets reelected, his voters must be closing their eyes […] Read more »
Incumbent presidents usually get more popular when they run for reelection. Will Trump?
On its face, President Trump should have a pretty solid chance of reelection. He is an incumbent, and incumbents have a real advantage in presidential elections. Moreover, many economic indicators are positive. Last month, for example, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed that Americans were more positive […] Read more »
The Religious Left is Small But Loud
… It’s easy to find activists, organizations, and vocal clergy to represent the religious left, but what we really need are estimates of population proportions. We have ample survey data for this task in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study series from 2006-2018, all of which have enormous samples (~50-65k) and […] Read more »