… In new survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the percentage of Americans who believe the economy is worse than a year ago has increased dramatically — to 46 percent in the most recent survey from 18 percent only a month ago. … The question, however, […] Read more »
Some Demographics on Voting by Mail
With the sudden surge of interest in mail balloting because of the COVID-19 emergency, there’s also been some interest in questions about who tends to use mail ballots now and who would like to use mail ballots. Here is some basic demographics related to the question. Because there’s so much […] Read more »
A Coronavirus Recession Could Doom Trump’s Reelection Chances
Key Points • The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity. • Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall. • A recession could seriously damage […] Read more »
Coronavirus is a test Trump can’t pass with ideology alone
The coronavirus’ relentless spread is exposing Donald Trump to a question no president wants to hear: Is he up to the job? For supporters and opponents alike, questions about Trump’s basic competence as a manager of the federal government have taken a back seat during his presidency to the fierce […] Read more »
Trump’s failed presidency
Trump’s presidency is failing rapidly. Like others before him, modern American presidents fail when they cannot master or comprehend the government that they inherit. This is a hard concept to grasp in an age when non-stop media coverage leads us to focus on the president’s communication skills and when presidents […] Read more »
The Sanders Coalition Is Not Quite What We Thought It Was
… A crucial bloc of Sanders’s 2016 voters is no longer a part of the Democratic primary electorate. The remnant of the conservative wing of the Democratic Party that in 2016 voiced its hostility to Clinton by voting for Sanders has now turned to President Trump. Many of these former […] Read more »