Key Points • With very few exceptions, statewide turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary has been higher than 2016. • Suburban areas have seen some of the sharpest turnout increases — though these areas tend to have higher population growth, they’ve also trended blue in general elections, perhaps a positive […] Read more »
The Cleaner ‘Smoke-Filled Room’
Key Points • In the last 50 years, American political party leaders lost their historical control of the nominations of presidential candidates. • The reduced power held by these expert politicians contributed to Donald Trump’s nomination in 2016, and Democrats in 2020 came close to making a similar choice. • […] Read more »
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know.
Many Democratic politicians and voters rallied strongly behind Joe Biden both before and after Super Tuesday, aiming to halt what appeared to be Bernie Sanders’s momentum. Many did so because they feared Sanders is too ideologically extreme to beat Donald Trump in November. Were they right? In short, probably so. […] Read more »
Four Reasons to Be Cautious About Trump’s Approval Ratings
Ever since the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis began to accelerate a couple of weeks ago, political obsessives have wondered about the likely effect that it would have on President Trump’s job approval ratings—and, by extension, his chances of re-election in November. … But realistically, it’s far too soon to glean much […] Read more »
In a pandemic, political polarization could kill people
As the coronavirus pandemic circles the world, public health officials and other authorities have implored people to avoid crowds and keep their distance from one another. But viral stories of parties on Bourbon Street, pub crawls at Irish bars and packed beaches in Florida make clear these messages often fall […] Read more »
This is who Americans trust about coronavirus information
To put it mildly, many Americans are worried about the coronavirus pandemic. In recent polling, 60 percent of people worry that they or someone in their family will be exposed, while 70 percent of Americans see the pandemic as a major threat to the U.S. economy. How will these anxieties […] Read more »