We’re now in the home stretch of the 2020 presidential campaign, with millions of ballots already cast via early and mail-in voting. The two candidates and their advisors are now making final decisions about where to allocate resources—ad spending, voter mobilization operations, and travel by the nominees and their running […] Read more »
Should news outlets stop making election forecasts based on polling data?
At this moment of great division in America, with tempers flaring and tensions high, let us gather together as a people, as a nation, and discuss the one thing we can all agree on: The Atlanta Falcons are hot garbage. … That the Falcons have this remarkable propensity for complete […] Read more »
Mail-In Voter Fraud: Anatomy of a Disinformation Campaign
The claim that election fraud is a major concern with mail-in ballots has become the central threat to election participation during the Covid-19 pandemic and to the legitimacy of the outcome of the election across the political spectrum. President Trump has repeatedly cited his concerns over voter fraud associated with […] Read more »
Americans Mostly Agree on Policing. The Difference Is Priorities.
Even as a pandemic and the resulting economic crisis occupy much of the news, President Trump and Joe Biden often talk about something else: crime and justice. Specifically, they are talking about policing and safety, while offering sharply competing visions of America. Yet a survey reveals that Americans are not […] Read more »
The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992.• Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948).• The greatest challenge […] Read more »
2020 Has Quietly Become Another ‘Year of the Woman’
The entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for election every two years. But congressional elections tend to lead the news only every other cycle, when there isn’t a concurrent presidential contest. James Madison may have believed that the “legislative authority necessarily predominates” over the executive, […] Read more »