The turbulence that followed the Nov. 3 election has roiled American politics, demonstrating an ominous vulnerability in our political system. Donald Trump used the 41-day window between the presidential election and the Dec. 14 meeting of the Electoral College to hold the country in thrall based on his refusal to […] Read more »
Why So Many Conservatives Believe the 2020 Election Was Stolen
It was easy to predict before the 2020 election that Donald Trump would never personally acknowledge that he lost fairly, if indeed he were to lose. This expectation was apparent enough from any casual observation of Trump’s behavior over his entire career in public life. Trump had even made accusations […] Read more »
How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?
Key Points• Prior to the election, several prominent political scientists forecast the election in PS: Political Science and Politics.• In aggregate, the forecasts performed very well.• However, several individual forecasts missed the mark, and this election showed the importance of questioning the assumptions of models in the midst of an […] Read more »
Three Big Benefits That Trump Provides to Republican Politicians
One widespread assumption of the last four years has held that most Republican members of Congress and other top elected officials privately disdain Donald Trump, view him as a serious political liability foisted on them by misguided voters, and would just as soon be rid of him forever as the […] Read more »
How The 2020 Election Has Changed Trust In U.S. Democracy
NPR’s Lulu Garcia-Navarro speaks with Brendan Nyhan, professor of government at Dartmouth College, about the erosion of democratic norms as some dispute the 2020 election results. NPR News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Probing the Relationship between Social Trust and Vote Choice
A growing theory for polling error in the 2016 and 2020 elections is nonresponse bias along social trust levels. Low social trust Americans have long been underrepresented in surveys, but historically this hasn’t mattered for pre-election polls because social trust was uncorrelated with the outcome of interest in elections — […] Read more »