Eric Cantor and House Republicans are on one of their periodic attacks against funding for social sciences, with political science as a prime target. … Why is it in the public interest to generate knowledge about voters? There’s a real answer to that, beyond a general sense of how “democratic” […] Read more »
If Campaign Effects Are Minimal, Why Even Try?
Last week, I participated in a symposium at Iowa State University entitled “Social Science, Presidential Campaigns and Political Reporting.” Among those who examined last year’s presidential election, the consensus seemed to be that the actual influence of the things we call “the campaign”—including advertisements, candidate visits, volunteer activity, etc.—was very […] Read more »
The 2012 Election Was Good for Political Science
In late September, I was involved in an email exchange in which a historian stated that “Someone should do a piece cataloging down all the poli sci consensi being undone this season.” Now I can write with some confidence that the findings of the political science canon were largely confirmed […] Read more »
The Problems with Forecasting and How to Get Better at It
… Theories and statistical models are different types of approximations about the real world. Without testing them by means of prediction, how do we know they are true and objective approximations? [cont.] Nate Silver, New York Times Read more »
Why the Stevens Op-Ed is Wrong
… The claim that real politics is messier than the statistics are capable of capturing is obviously correct. But the implied corollary – that the government shouldn’t go out of its way to support it – doesn’t follow. [cont.] Henry Farrell, George Washington U. Read more »
Political Scientists Are Lousy Forecasters
… It’s an open secret in my discipline: in terms of accurate political predictions (the field’s benchmark for what counts as science), my colleagues have failed spectacularly and wasted colossal amounts of time and money. [cont.] Jacqueline Stevens, Northwestern U. (NYT) Read more »