We finally know who the major-party vice-presidential nominees are – Sen. Timothy M. Kaine of Virginia and Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana. Not surprisingly, much “veepstakes” speculation leading up to these announcements centered on the usual factors considered to be electorally advantageous: geography and demography. But much of what you’ve […] Read more »
College Men for Trump
It’s relatively easy to understand how the bitter grievances of the white working class drive support for Donald Trump. What’s less understandable is why a plurality of college-educated white men backs the Republican Party’s combative soon-to-be nominee. … We often overlook the pro-Trump leanings of white men with college degrees, […] Read more »
Beware of Analyzing Demographic Groups in Isolation (Even the All-Important White Working Class!)
… Close study of the changing preferences of a single demographic group or stratum of the electorate can yield insights and illuminate developments that otherwise go unappreciated—such as the dramatic pro-Democratic trend among Asian-American voters since the 1990s. The evolution of the parties’ popular coalitions over time holds significant implications […] Read more »
Brexit will make things worse. Is that why people voted for it?
It is a basic principle of economics that human beings choose things that benefit them. But last week, as the results of Britain’s referendum on membership in the European Union came in, it quickly became clear that this principle was being overturned. Not only had Britain as a whole voted […] Read more »
Politics and Polls: Goldwater, Brexit, and The Party Decides
In 1964, Lyndon B. Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater in the presidential election. Could we see another landslide like this in 2016? Or does today’s political environment make that impossible? Tune in to the first episode of “Politics and Polls” as Professors Julian E. Zelizer and Sam Wang debate this issue […] Read more »
The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
Normally around this time in a presidential election cycle — the “interregnum,” as it has come to be known — we would be waiting for the dust from the nomination campaigns to settle before moving on to the conventions and to considerations of the general election race. As you may […] Read more »