In 2016, race and identity has emerged as the central dividing line in American politics. Though race has always lived close to the surface of politics in the US, it has rarely been so explicitly front and center in political campaigns. So how did this happen? The easy answer is […] Read more »
How Much Is Donald Trump Hurting the G.O.P.? Here’s a Way to See
There is no reason to speculate about whether nominating Donald J. Trump has cost the Republican Party support in this presidential election. There is plenty of data to demonstrate that it has. CONT. Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times Read more »
Never forget: The 2016 presidential election is supposed to be one that Republicans can win
… Back in January 2014, I wrote a post titled: “The Democratic Party’s uphill battle to 270 electoral votes in 2016.” Ha-ha, right? Silly me, right? Not at all. At that moment in 2014, given economic growth and President Obama’s popularity and the challenge of winning the White House for […] Read more »
In the Long Run, Republicans Are Screwed
The current election will, mercifully, come to an end on November 8th. But its repercussions will be felt for a very long time, and, for the Republican party, they could be devastating. That’s the implication of new research, which describes “the emergence of a decisive Democratic advantage” among Americans who […] Read more »
Key ingredients of opposition to free trade? Prejudice and nationalism
… Many observers have noted that Donald Trump’s anti-trade language is decidedly “us versus them.” In Britain, the “leave” movement’s campaign against economic openness was infused with anti-foreign sentiment. A series of studies by both economists and political scientists confirms this link between nationalistic sentiment and opposition to global markets. […] Read more »
Political scientists predict Clinton will win 347 electoral votes
Asking experts to predict what is going to happen is probably one of the oldest forecasting methods available. When it comes to predicting election outcomes, we expect experts to have experience in reading and interpreting polls, putting them in historical context, and estimating the likely effects of upcoming campaign events. […] Read more »