Today starts a regular feature of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab called “Special Election Watch.” The idea is to follow special elections in 2018 as a guide to the extent of the Democratic swing in the November 2018 election. First, a couple of words of background, and then […] Read more »
Firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies
Our survey results between December 2017 and January 2018 demonstrate mixed results, with some threat ratings improving and others worsening. From November to January, ratings improved on all six dimensions of democratic performance, reversing the deterioration from October to November. However, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017-18 […] Read more »
Use of election forecasts in campaign coverage can confuse voters and may lower turnout
Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which candidate is ahead at any given moment but also estimates their probability of winning the eventual election. These […] Read more »
Why don’t Trump voters feel betrayed? Because they’re getting what they wanted.
Why doesn’t President Trump’s base feel betrayed yet, as so many observers think it should? Pundits have argued that they would feel alienated by his State of the Union address, his firing of Stephen K. Bannon and his trip to Davos to mingle with the global elite. Our research suggests […] Read more »
Powerful or warm? Liberal and conservative voters favor different traits in a politician
Several decades of research in political and electoral behaviour have concluded that a candidate’s personality matters when voters cast their ballots. Unsurprisingly, the main take-away from most of these studies is that voters tend to vote for candidates that they find appealing. However, existing research is still unclear about the […] Read more »
Political advertising is not polarizing the American public
Americans are increasingly divided when it comes to politics. In Congress, there are virtually no liberal Republicans or conservative Democrats and very few moderates. Among the public, Americans have become more sorted, with less overlap between those holding liberal or conservative positions on a variety of issues. Furthermore, there is […] Read more »