The Democratic Party is a traditional political organization dedicated to winning elections. It is also a social justice movement, the political home of societal change. … The tension between the center and the fervent anti-corporate, anti-Wall Street wing of the party — Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and now Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez […] Read more »
Erosion, polarization, and norm violations: Bright Line Watch Survey Report
Donald Trump is a disruptor. Few would disagree that his actions and style of political combat set him apart from past presidents. There is less consensus about the implications of Trump’s distinctive governing style for the health of American democracy, however. To understand how Americans rate their democracy in the […] Read more »
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913
As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
Was the Midwestern ‘Red Shift’ More Pro-Trump or Anti-Hillary? The Answer Matters a Lot for 2018
… In general, one of the most challenging aspects of analyzing events in real time is distinguishing temporary blips from long-term trends. Popular pundits and other media figures often tend to overstate the degree to which immediate events portend long-term patterns; as I noted once in another context, “There’s a […] Read more »
What’s Good for Democracy Is Also Good for Democrats
… While it is tempting to view elections as being decided in the moment, much of the groundwork is set in place decades earlier. Looking at survey data from the 1950s, political scientists observed that voters who came of age during the Great Depression identified as Democrats at much higher […] Read more »
Actually, Republicans Do Believe in Climate Change
It is widely believed that most Republicans are skeptical about human-caused climate change. But is this belief correct? In 2014 and 2016, we conducted two national surveys of more than 2,000 respondents on the issue of climate change. We found that most Republicans agreed that climate change is happening, threatens […] Read more »