The family separation policy, the “travel ban,” the threat of a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t fund a border wall: Both as candidate and now as president, Donald Trump has consistently made his opposition to immigration the center of his politics. Of course, he’s not the only politician to do […] Read more »
A Few Political Consequences of the Democratic Surge Among College-Educated Whites
The Pew Research Center recently released an informative report on the composition of the American electorate, based on a survey of citizens whose electoral participation (or lack thereof) in 2016 was confirmed by matching their names to state voter turnout records. … The national exit poll estimated that Clinton had […] Read more »
Electing More Women Would Change Congress (But Not Make It More Bipartisan)
… With a record number of women running for Congress, there’s a decent chance that the number of women on Capitol Hill will grow next session. That could be a hugely important change, as women remain heavily underrepresented in Congress, making up 1 in 5 lawmakers, even as they make […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information
Abstract: We forecast party control of the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm election. First, we model the expected national vote relying on available generic Congressional polls and the party of the president. Second, we model the district vote based primarily on results from 2016 and the national swing. […] Read more »
Across Most of the Americas, National Pride Is High and Stable, While It Has Plummeted in the U.S.
Gallup’s 2018 poll reports that the United States has a record-low proportion of citizens very proud to be American. Is declining national pride a region-wide trend? How does national pride vary across countries, years, and individuals, in the Americas? This Insights report shows that national pride is high in most […] Read more »
Politics & Polls: The Centrist Paradox
The United States and Europe have seen a rise in outsider political movements, with more voters supporting populist authoritarian leaders who buck traditional cultural values than in the recent past. In this episode, Sam Wang interviews researcher and writer David R. K. Adler, who argues, contrary to contemporary belief, that […] Read more »