… As the impeachment process heats up in Washington, Donald Trump is seeing a boost in support in crucial swing states. Across the board, President Trump is polling well against the Democratic field in each of these battleground states. Notably, Vice President Biden has seen a sharp decline in support […] Read more »
As Candidates Jostle for Position, a Long Race May Become a Marathon
With just under two months until the Iowa caucuses, the already-volatile Democratic presidential race has grown even more unsettled, setting the stage for a marathon nominating contest between the party’s moderate and liberal factions. … The contenders have recently begun to attack one another more forcefully — Ms. Warren, a […] Read more »
2020 Democrats Face Their Stress Test
… There’s something of a spotlight paradox happening in the Democratic primary this year. The candidates who have spent time under the bright lights have wilted, while those sitting in its shadow have risen. Why is this? Democrats don’t suddenly dislike the candidates who have undergone the scrutiny that comes […] Read more »
Will Impeachment Affect the Democratic Presidential Race?
When the impeachment of Donald Trump became a likely event in September, it became fashionable to speculate how Trump’s re-election fortunes might be affected: would the process hurt Trump by generating damaging disclosures and negative publicity, or would he benefit from a popular backlash and highly-mobilized Republican base? I suggested […] Read more »
California: Sanders and Warren Now Share Primary Lead, Preferences Unusually Fluid
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, at 24%, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, at 22%, are now the frontrunners in California’s March Democratic presidential primary. The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden dropping to third place, with 14% support, followed by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at […] Read more »
The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012
Key Points • Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. • Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars. • […] Read more »