Just days before the first votes are counted in the Democratic primary, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden statistically tied at the top of the Democratic field. Sanders gets 27 percent support from Democratic primary voters around […] Read more »
The Iowa Caucuses Are In 4 Days. Almost Anything Could Still Happen.
As much as we try to remind you all about how uncertain elections can be — pleas that sometimes fall on deaf ears — it’s important to keep in mind in advance of the Iowa caucuses. To begin with, primaries are much harder to poll than general elections, and caucuses […] Read more »
Democrats’ Dilemma: Ideology, Electability, and the 2020 Presidential Nomination in Iowa and the Nation
Voters in primary elections generally have two major goals: advancing their policy preferences and winning the general election. This can lead to a dilemma when these goals are in conflict. For many voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, that dilemma is very real. That is because of […] Read more »
Are Democratic Voters Truly Divided by Ideology?
The four Democratic candidates at the top of the polls heading into the Iowa caucuses have been paired by pundits into what they like to call lanes. It’s a highway analogy, as in “stay in your lane.” One, seen as more progressive and liberal, contains Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. […] Read more »
The Forecast before Iowans Caucus
This week, as the Iowa caucuses loom, we break down a flurry of new polls. Plus, we discuss why it’s difficult to predict who will win in Iowa, and which candidates have an advantage going into the caucuses. The Forecast Fest Read more »
With Iowa and New Hampshire still up in the air, Democratic race has 2016 echoes
… Given the wildly conflicting polls (and the difficulty in polling caucus attendees), we still can’t be certain who’ll win Iowa, what the order of finish will be or what the margins between candidates will look like. So there is a lot up in the air. On the other hand, […] Read more »