One state down, and many states to go. In one respect, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg “won” the Iowa caucuses Monday evening regardless whether he finishes first in delegates or in the popular vote. … Veteran pollster Gary Langer described Buttigieg’s performance in the Iowa caucuses entrance poll as […] Read more »
In Iowa entrance poll, Buttigieg shows broad-based appeal; Biden, not so much
Broad-based appeal lifted former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the Iowa Democratic caucuses while younger participants, strong liberals and issue-focused voters pulled for Sen. Bernie Sanders. Former Vice President Joe Biden ran well among seniors in the ABC News entrance poll, but struggled mightily in some key groups, […] Read more »
Supporting a non-preferred candidate
Much has been written about candidates’ “electability,” and pundits often wonder how these concerns affect the Democratic presidential primary this year. Are primary voters planning on voting for the person they want to be president, the person they think is most likely to beat Donald Trump, or are these things […] Read more »
This Iowa Poll Was Never Published. It’s Still Influencing What You Read.
The Des Moines Register spiked its poll Saturday night, but by the next day it seemed most reporters here had seen the numbers — or something purporting to be the numbers. … Here are what some reporters told me about how the poll affected their work: CONT. Ben Smith, BuzzFeed […] Read more »
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
With just a few hours to go before the voting starts in Iowa, it’s time for us to freeze the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast model! So here are our final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s […] Read more »
Iowa Road Trip: Do Reporters Know Anything?
What’s going to happen? The Uber driver, learning my occupation, wants to know. So, too, newsroom colleagues who cover beats other than politics. So, too, family members, who not unreasonably imagine that I must have gained some insight by leaving them to travel here. Two words I have learned to […] Read more »