What We Know About The Democratic Primary After Iowa

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew considers how the results — so far — of the Iowa caucuses will affect the Democratic primary. The team also checks in on the campaigning underway in New Hampshire and debates the meaning of the Senate’s vote to acquit President Trump. FiveThirtyEight Read more »

Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down

Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »

The Iowa muddle isn’t over, even now that the first results are in

The muddle was still the message even after the Iowa Democratic Party finally released partial results from Monday night’s caucuses following an agonizing and unprecedented delay. … Even if the final numbers, or the order of finish among the candidates, shift somewhat when the last votes are released, one large […] Read more »