The U.S. Supreme Court. Shutterstock Kevin J. McMahon, Trinity College When I learned Justice Anthony Kennedy would retire, my thoughts went immediately to the confirmation of the newest justice, Neil Gorsuch. The Senate’s confirmation of Gorsuch was unprecedented in the history of the country. Never before had a “minority president” […] Read more »
The messy reality of Donald Trump’s poll numbers
On June 25, Axios’s Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei took readers inside Donald Trump’s “winning, cynical plan.” They argued that “the more President Trump does, says and tweets outrageous things, the more his critics go bananas and the better he does in the polls.” … “It’s arguably the most cynical […] Read more »
An Electoral Fight Between Two Very Different Americas
The fight for control of Congress is being fought in two very different Americas. Of the 18 competitive and potentially competitive Senate races, those categorized in The Cook Political Report as Toss Up, Leaning, or Likely Democratic or Republican (so not Solid Democrat or Republican), just three are being fought […] Read more »
Most Americans oppose key parts of Trump immigration plans
Americans overwhelmingly oppose the Trump administration’s now-rescinded policy of separating immigrant children from their parents, and smaller majorities also disagree with the president’s call to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and to restrict legal immigration by limiting citizens from bringing parents and siblings to this country, according to […] Read more »
Gauging the Level of Over Time Issue Polarization among Partisans
The question of the extent and nature of polarization in the American public has received much attention from political science. Though not always debated on this front, polarization on issue and policy opinion is a nuanced subject and sometimes suffers from limitations from survey data. For example, survey questions on […] Read more »
What Kennedy’s Retirement Means for the Midterms
What are the electoral implications of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement that he will retire from the Supreme Court? With about a third fewer people voting in midterm than in presidential elections, who votes and who stays home this November is especially important. On April 10, this column noted the disparity […] Read more »