As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
White threat in a browning America
In 2008, Barack Obama held up change as a beacon, attaching to it another word, a word that channeled everything his young and diverse coalition saw in his rise and their newfound political power: hope. An America that would elect a black man president was an America in which a […] Read more »
Is Bannon right that white, college-educated women have given up on Republicans?
Earlier this month, former White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon told the Daily Beast that while college-educated women were tricky for President Trump and Republicans, their votes might still be within reach. “College-educated Republican women in the suburbs are a challenge,” he said. “You are not going to be able […] Read more »
More Republicans in the news? That’s not media bias
It’s difficult to measure media bias. Lawrey/shutterstock.com Dominik Stecula, University of Pennsylvania A July 20 report, analyzing news content from The New York Times and The Washington Post, found that Republican politicians get roughly 2.5 times as many mentions as Democrats. The report, produced by a progressive nonprofit Media Matters, […] Read more »
Trump’s two-track strategy: The rich get richer, and the poor get distracted
… Thanks to a combination of hyperpartisanship, Trump’s willingness to say things that others wouldn’t and a stronger economy, Trump’s tenure as president has been an explicit manifestation of what once was a tricky balance. For years, many Republicans have worked to effect sweeping cuts and benefits for the wealthiest […] Read more »
Trump isn’t everything in the midterms. Local factors will matter too
… The presidential voting pattern of a district has become a very strong predictor of how it will vote in House elections. That’s why you’ll consistently hear folks like myself cite the presidential voting patterns and pretty much only the presidential voting patterns of a district to help explain why […] Read more »