Less than three weeks until Election Day, voters are thinking most about health care, the economy, and reining in President Trump — and Democratic candidates are benefitting. Currently, 49 percent of likely voters back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 42 percent the Republican, according to a new […] Read more »
Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat
In the midterm elections for the House and Senate, Democrats are very likely to win the majority of votes, but they face structural barriers to winning the majority of seats. … In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes but lost the […] Read more »
The Political Class Got 2016 Wrong. Could We See a Repeat?
… Although most politicos argued it was unlikely that Trump could win the presidency trailing Clinton going into the last weekend before the election, they forgot or chose to deny that it was still theoretically possible that voters could deliver a surprise outcome. Many are still in denial. Reading the […] Read more »
The Kavanaugh saga reminded Republicans of a big reason to vote in November: Stopping Democrats
After Brett M. Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called opponents of his nomination “the mob” and sardonically thanked them for energizing Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. “It’s been a great political gift for us,” McConnell said. A new survey bears out some […] Read more »
Let Us Overanalyze the First 2020 Democratic Primary Poll
A poll released by CNN asking Democratic voters to express their preferences on potential Democratic presidential candidates shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading a potentially very crowded field. … The first, and most obvious, response to this poll is that it is very early to say much of anything […] Read more »
Polarization Seems to Be Helping Republicans in Run-Up to Midterms
One big question looms over the fight for control of Congress: Will strong Democratic candidates ride a blue wave to victories on Nov. 6 in the long list of Republican-leaning areas they’ve put into play? Or will partisan polarization carry Republicans to a closer than expected midterm result? The fight […] Read more »