More and more Americans vote for the same party up and down the ballot these days. But some people still split their tickets. Who? Where? Well, we can use our forecast data to try to answer that. There are 22 states holding multiple statewide races this year — meaning a […] Read more »
For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout
A wide range of evidence indicates that Democratic voters are poised to vote in numbers unseen in a midterm election in at least a decade. Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit that hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to results from more than 50 New York Times Upshot/Siena […] Read more »
A Shift in GOP Fortunes
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was either no net change at all, or a shift of one […] Read more »
Partisans view the other side’s rallies, protests with suspicion
As the 2018 midterm elections loom, the partisan divide dominates the political landscape, and each side views the other with suspicion. … Most Americans across party lines think fundamental changes are needed in the health care system, including about three in 10 who think there’s so much wrong with it […] Read more »
A Referendum on Trump or Pelosi?
At the beginning of this cycle, I had conversations with strategists on both sides about the challenges for each party going into 2018. Democrats were worried that Trump had his own ‘brand’ that would make it hard to try and link GOP candidates to the unorthodox and unconventional president. Trying […] Read more »
How Democrats could win back the House on health care, in 4 polls
Health care was arguably the issue that cost Democrats control of Congress back in 2010. But eight years later, evidence is piling up that health care could help Democrats retake the House majority for the first time since then. … So how did this political transition on health care come […] Read more »