The tone of media coverage often reflects the outcome of election campaigns. This is not necessarily because opinion follows media content — it seems just as likely that media reflects the state of public affairs. Either way, there is a considerable body of work that finds a correlation between media […] Read more »
In midterm voting decisions, policies took a back seat to partisanship
Partisan loyalty and dislike of the opposing party and its candidates were major factors for voters’ choices in this month’s midterm elections, with far fewer citing policies as the main reason why they voted for Democratic or Republican candidates. CONT. Pew Read more »
Democrats in 2020 don’t have the Republican safety margin
One of the central questions in understanding the Democratic presidential nomination race for 2020 is simply: Are Democrats now where Republicans were four years ago? Will the party be confronted next year with one or two dozen viable candidates on the debate stage, each with their own financial base of […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Dimming Prospects
… The outcome of the 2018 midterm elections does not predict results in the 2020 presidential election, but it does signal geographic strengths and vulnerabilities going forward. After Democrats lost control of the House and Senate in 1994, President Bill Clinton adjusted his governing strategy by moving to the center […] Read more »
What’s Stronger Than a Blue Wave? Gerrymandered Districts
When the blue wave came to North Carolina, the red levees held. In a year in which Democrats picked up as many as 41 House seats, including in places as conservative as Oklahoma and Utah, they lost all three of their targets for pickups in one of the nation’s most […] Read more »
Republicans Didn’t Learn Anything From the Midterms
… Trump, the Republican congressional leadership, and most of the conservative-media infrastructure have all made clear that they see no need for a course correction after the midterms, even though Democrats won more than 53 percent of the total popular vote in House elections. That’s a larger share than Democrats […] Read more »