… Biden’s apparent resurrection from relic to runaway front-runner has illustrated a chasm between perception and reality. … So why did the media spend the past few years getting the state of the Democratic Party so wrong? … The most important ingredient in the delusion was Twitter. It is hard […] Read more »
What if Electability Is More About Authenticity than Moderation?
There is a big disconnect in Democratic politics right now. On the one hand, a majority of Democratic primary voters are backing Biden at this early date–not because he lines up with their policy preferences, but because they believe he’s the most safe and electable choice. … Frustratingly, in the […] Read more »
A Strategy Emerges to Counter House Democrats: Dare Them to Impeach
As the White House and Congress escalate their constitutional showdown, President Trump and his team are essentially trying to call what they see as the Democrats’ bluff. The message: Put up or shut up. Impeach or move on. Confident that there are not enough votes to remove him from office […] Read more »
What Happened To George W. Bush’s GOP?
The Bushes, and in many ways Texas, shaped the identity of the Republican Party across three decades. In a live taping of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast in Houston, the crew discusses how and why the GOP has changed since the end of President George W. Bush’s tenure. Houston Chronicle columnist […] Read more »
The Democrats’ Coalition Could Fundamentally Change by 2020
Though they’ve attracted little attention, recent public polls have sent clear warning signals that the ambitious agenda of the rejuvenated Democratic left could strain the coalition that carried the party to its sweeping gains in the 2018 election. Recent surveys show that such prized progressive ideas as a government-run single-payer […] Read more »
Notes on the State of the House
Let’s start here with a caveat: House generic ballot polling from a year and a half before a general election should not be treated as predictive. The 2020 House election depends on a lot of factors that remain unknowable, most importantly the tone-setting effect of the presidential race, which at […] Read more »