… Older, whiter, more social conservative America feels under threat of losing their stamp on the country’s character, racial composition and soul–and they’re right. They’re losing: not only is the country inevitably becoming less white, it is also becoming less religious, and the millennial generation is not only larger than […] Read more »
Belief in Bootstraps Is Strongest Where Pulling Up Is Toughest
A widening income gap and sagging social mobility have left dents in the American dream. But the belief that anyone with enough gumption and grit can clamber to the top remains central to the nation’s self-image. And that could complicate Democratic efforts to frame the 2020 presidential election as a […] Read more »
Trump Needs His Base to Burn With Anger
… Trump portrays his political opponents — Democrats are “sick people” and the media are “enemies of the people” — as threats to the social order, aware that tapping into voter anger and anxiety is one of the most effective tools to drive up election turnout. Alex Gage, head of […] Read more »
In-Group Love Versus Out-Group Hate: Which Is More Important to Partisans and When?
Affective polarization is on the rise, driving historically high levels of negative feelings towards out party members. When political intergroup conflict occurs, what is the primary reaction that people have: do they run to defend their in-group, or do they lash out against the out-group? Are there conditions under which […] Read more »
The Democratic Primary Field Is Not as Wide Open as It Seems
How can we determine who’s winning the Democratic presidential nomination for 2020? Based on prior nomination cycles, there are quite a few indicators we can use. Polling is an obviously popular one, although is not always very predictive this far out. Endorsements can be useful. The preferences of party activists […] Read more »
Democratic candidates veer left, leaving behind successful midterm strategy
… With a full embrace of liberal positions on hot-button issues from immigration to health care, taxes and abortion, the Democratic presidential field has effectively abandoned the strategy that propelled the party to a landslide victory in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats flipped 43 GOP House seats and won 31 […] Read more »