In the wake of the Blue Tsunami that crashed through Virginia on election night in November 2017, the state’s Democrats found their political fortunes in the House of Delegates dramatically transformed. … With two post-Trump elections behind them, both of which had produced large turnout surges for Democrats and sympathetic […] Read more »
2019 special elections haven’t been as good for Democrats
The supposed smart take from the special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District is that Republican Dan Bishop underperformed compared to President Donald Trump’s 2016 performance in the district. Bishop won by 2 points while Trump won by 12 points, which is supposed to indicate that the national political […] Read more »
The House’s Republican Bias: Does it Exist?
The Republican Party’s structural advantage in federal elections has been well documented in liberal circles. Democrats argue that Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that the institution’s legitimacy is at stake. But do Democrats really face a structural disadvantage in House elections? Two measures of bias — the Median […] Read more »
No One Should Take Black Voters for Granted
The African-American electorate has been undergoing a quiet, long-term transformation, moving from the left toward the center on several social and cultural issues, while remaining decisively liberal, even radical, on economic issues, according to a series of studies by prominent African-American scholars. … Contemporary polling provides evidence of moderation among […] Read more »
Five Takeaways from Republicans’ Narrow NC-09 Escape
Republicans narrowly averted disaster as GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina’s 9th CD, where an absentee ballot fraud scandal last fall required a new election. But Tuesday’s results were nothing to brag about: Bishop and […] Read more »
GOP special election win papers over fragile 2020 position
Republicans went all-in to keep hold of a key congressional district in a special election Tuesday, and they won — but they still have good reason to be concerned about the result. While the GOP can celebrate the election of a new congressman, Dan Bishop, his 2-point victory in a […] Read more »