Over the two weeks or so since the impeachment of Donald Trump became likely, a series of news articles has chronicled Trump’s strategic and tactical response to his new predicament. Anyone wondering whether Trump would adopt Bill Clinton’s playbook from 1998—acknowledge impeachment as little as possible in public; portray yourself […] Read more »
If Republicans Ever Turn On Trump, It’ll Happen All At Once
… Will Republicans finally break with Trump? We may not know until it happens. But be forewarned — if it does happen, it will likely take us by surprise. After all, political science has shown us that big political changes often come suddenly, after long periods of stasis. Looking back, […] Read more »
Why Partisans Look At The Same Evidence On Ukraine And See Wildly Different Things
… It is not your imagination — partisanship really does affect the way we understand evidence of a scandal and how we interpret that evidence. You can see that in the polls that came out this week, which show sharp divides between Democrats who overwhelmingly support impeachment proceedings and Republicans […] Read more »
Democratic Nominees Often Secured Lead Late in Campaign
… Presidential nominees leading throughout the primary campaign has been the exception, not the rule, for Democratic candidates over the past six decades. This has been the case for a variety of reasons — including because some eventual nominees didn’t enter the race until late in the campaign or because […] Read more »
Why Trump’s Favorite 2016 Map Should Scare Him
This week, as President Donald Trump went on the offensive to bolster his case against impeachment, he tweeted a county-by-county map of the 2016 presidential race that showed a vast sea of red interrupted only by a few blue inlets, mostly along the coasts. The map, captioned with the headline […] Read more »
The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment
A major overall theme in American political life is the nationalization of politics. How people feel about the president is bleeding down the ballot to an extreme degree, to the point where congressional expert Gary Jacobson observed that the 2018 midterm was “the most sweeping national referendum on any administration […] Read more »