To many observers, the Democratic presidential primary has highlighted the “profound ideological divides between the Democratic Party’s moderate and progressive wings,” as an Associated Press article put it — two wings locked in a bitter fight for control. … Perhaps that’s how Democratic leaders and activists see the primary. But […] Read more »
How Black Voters Could Help Biden Win the Democratic Nomination
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. may lose the Iowa caucuses. But he is betting on strong support from black voters in Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates […] Read more »
Will John Roberts Constrain Trump?
The final weeks of November may be remembered as the moment when Donald Trump crushed the last vestiges of resistance to him in the Republican Party. The sole remaining question is whether that conquest extends to the Republican-appointed justices on the Supreme Court—especially the chief justice, John Roberts. A stark […] Read more »
House ratings changes: A dozen races shift toward Democrats
Most Republicans believe their party weathered the 2018 storm and brighter days are ahead in 2020. But that perspective doesn’t mean the GOP’s chances of retaking the House are particularly good. … With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting, or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic […] Read more »
Why Democratic voters can’t make up their minds
The campaign for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination is radically unsettled because the party’s primary voters are in a deeply uncertain mood. They try on candidates, find them wanting and move on to someone else. Further confusing the contest is the success of two candidates, former vice president Joe Biden […] Read more »
Party Cues in the News: Elite Opinion Leadership and Climate Skepticism
Supporters of the Republican Party have become much more skeptical of the science of climate change since the 1990s. We argue that this phenomenon can be explained by a model of top-down persuasion by party elites. We construct aggregate measures of climate skepticism from nearly 200 public opinion polls at […] Read more »