For Democrats, the Sun Belt imperative is growing more urgent. While most in the party are preoccupied with winning back the three Rust Belt states that tipped the 2016 election to Donald Trump, both people and political power are continuing to migrate inexorably from that region to the younger and […] Read more »
The U.S. Remained Center-Right, Ideologically, in 2019
As Americans continued to lean more Democratic than Republican in their party preferences in 2019, the ideological balance of the country remained center-right, with 37% of Americans, on average, identifying as conservative during the year, 35% as moderate and 24% as liberal. CONT. Lydia Saad, Gallup Read more »
The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes
Key Points • Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. • The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins, and could feasibly […] Read more »
Republican Edge in Electoral College Tie Endures
The possibility that the Electoral College could split 269-269 is remote, but possible. … We looked at the GOP edge in the event of a tie about a year ago, and we thought we’d update our outlook at the dawn of the election year. There have been some subtle changes, […] Read more »
A popular theory for Trump’s popularity among Republicans appears to be wrong
… To Democrats, the level of support for Trump within his party seems occasionally baffling. How could someone they hate so much be viewed so positively by the other party? Over the course of Trump’s presidency, a theory emerged: He’s so popular among Republicans because Trump-skeptical Republicans have simply given […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »