The fever may be starting to break. Donald Trump has held his party in line with bullying tactics and the white-hot love of the conservative populist base. But now — badly trailing in the polls and marred by increasingly erratic, self-sabotaging behavior — there are signs that some Republicans are […] Read more »
Top GOP Hands Brace for a Blowout
In talking to pollsters and political operatives in both parties over the past few days, I heard from nary a voice that thinks President Trump did anything other than hurt himself in last week’s debate. The only dispute is over how much. Yet before we could even get a good […] Read more »
Why Republicans should be worried about Arizona
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, are in the swing state of Arizona on Thursday, and so is Vice President Mike Pence. Their presence underscores the importance of the state to the path to the presidency in November. And while Arizona hasn’t voted […] Read more »
With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground
Key Points• Recent rosy polling for Joe Biden in the presidential race may represent an artificial sugar high for the challenger.• But at this point, Donald Trump needs to be making up ground — not treading water or falling further behind.• 11 rating changes across four categories of races (president, […] Read more »
Extreme Partisan Gaps in Early Voting Emerge This Year
Major partisan differences in when U.S. registered voters plan to vote have emerged this year that did not exist in prior years. Sixty-two percent of Democratic registered voters plan to vote early or indicate they have already voted, compared with 28% of Republican voters. The 34-percentage-point partisan gap in early […] Read more »
Trump loyalists facing a political reckoning
The biggest miscalculation Republicans made throughout the Trump era is conflating the president’s base of hard-core supporters with the larger swath of Trump sympathizers, who share the president’s populist instincts but always held reservations about his temperament. They’re middle-class voters who have been turned off by the Democratic Party’s elitist […] Read more »