The coming generational backlash against Donald Trump may represent only the first tremor in a much larger earthquake threatening the GOP through the 2020s. Trump is eroding the Republican Party’s position with younger voters at precisely the same time as the massively diverse Millennials and Generation Z are poised to […] Read more »
Why Does Trump Win With White Men?
The term “gender gap” has a clinical sound to it, like it’s an intrinsic condition of our politics. But it did not always exist, and with each recent election cycle, it has become more extreme. If we look more closely at it, the gender gap probably deserves another name: It’s […] Read more »
Suddenly, Nearly Anything Is Possible in the Senate Races
What had shaped up to be a fairly mild, predictable Senate cycle has become one of the hairiest in memory. To see why, let’s start with the stakes: The policy consequences of Republicans losing only a seat or two and holding onto a sliver of a majority is dramatically different […] Read more »
What if Beating Trump Is the Easy Part?
In the short term, should Joe Biden win the election and move into the White House, he would take office with a Democratic Party unified in its opposition to all things Trump. The question is how long would that last before leaders of every liberal interest group circling the new […] Read more »
What Republican internal polling can actually tell us
Former Vice President Joe Biden has held a steadfast lead in high quality nonpartisan public polling. Still, some conservatives and President Donald Trump claim the polls are off. Trump himself has said he is up in key swing states. There’s no reason to believe Trump. An examination of publicly released […] Read more »
The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base
In 2016, Donald J. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level of enthusiasm and turnout from a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees. But in 2020, Mr. Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. face a drastically changed electorate. The […] Read more »