… This is a relatively new phenomenon, but pollsters have increasingly found evidence of partisan nonresponse — that is, particular types of Republicans are just less likely to take surveys, so these voters’ opinions are not reflected in survey data. This was especially relevant in understanding Trump’s support, too, as […] Read more »
What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling
Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that “polling is […] Read more »
Why millennials and Gen Z have the most to lose in the voting wars
In an epic struggle over voting rights, the future political influence of the diverse generations now aging into the electorate could pivot on the fate of legislation the House is expected to consider this week. Even as Republican-controlled states, drawing on former President Donald Trump’s groundless claims of massive fraud […] Read more »
The Republican Party Changed Forever — For The Better — Under President Donald Trump
In 2020, President Donald J. Trump created one of the greatest voter coalitions in American political history, bringing millions of new voters into the Republican Party and expanding the GOP’s vote among African Americans and Hispanic Americans. The electoral votes that decided this election were determined by a mere 44,000 […] Read more »
Democratic voting bill would make biggest changes in decades
As Congress begins debate this week on sweeping voting and ethics legislation, Democrats and Republicans can agree on one thing: If signed into law, it would usher in the biggest overhaul of U.S. elections law in at least a generation. House Resolution 1, Democrats’ 791-page bill, would touch virtually every […] Read more »
The Georgia counties turning the state blue are growing. And quickly.
Last week, David Perdue announced he would not run to recapture his Senate seat in Georgia for the Republicans. Many in the political class wondered why a strong candidate with deep family ties and a history as an incumbent would take a pass at a chance to run again. The […] Read more »