Blame breaks evenly if government defaults on debt, despite preference for Biden’s position

Americans divide closely on whom they’d blame if the federal government defaults on its debts, even as most align with the Biden administration’s position on how Congress should handle the issue. If default occurs — as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday could happen by June 1 — 39% in […] Read more »

Most Americans support anti-trans policies favored by GOP, poll shows

Clear majorities of Americans support restrictions affecting transgender children, a Washington Post-KFF poll finds, offering political jet fuel for Republicans in statehouses and Congress who are pushing measures restricting curriculum, sports participation and medical care. … Still, as the country engages in a national debate over public policy around gender […] Read more »

Red States Need Blue Cities

In red and blue states, Democrats are consolidating their hold on the most economically productive places. Metropolitan areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020 generated more of the total economic output than metros won by Donald Trump in 35 of the 50 states, according to new research by Brookings […] Read more »

There’s a toxic brew of mistrust toward U.S. institutions. It’s got real consequences

… Partisanship and polarization have been on the rise over the last 30 years. There are fewer competitive House districts, largely drawn by Republicans, which has meant more ideological purity in Congress and more hard-line, and, at times, ugly, in-your-face politics. It’s all mixed together to make for a toxic […] Read more »

Leaning Into State Trends: The Midwest and Interior West

Key Points• Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020.• In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans.• In the Interior West, Arizona’s […] Read more »

Can Biden Win Over the ‘Meh’ Voters Again in 2024?

For the first time in memory, low approval ratings of a sitting president didn’t cause a disaster for his party in a midterm election. Many Democratic candidates in 2022 succeeded in winning over voters who “somewhat” disapproved of Biden — a group I dubbed last fall as the ‘meh’ voters. […] Read more »