Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign

The Democratic campaign has taken on the feel of “Groundhog Day,” repeating the same storyline over and over with only minor variation. Hillary Clinton, in our view, has spent most of the year in the liminal space between “clear favorite” and “presumptive nominee.” CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »

What to Look For in Tuesday’s East Coast Primaries

Opinion polls indicate Tuesday’s slate of Democratic and Republican primaries are likely to reaffirm the leads of the two front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the results Tuesday night will be about more than simple momentum; they will tell us a lot about the state of races that have […] Read more »

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana

Donald Trump heads into Tuesday’s slate of primaries maintaining his large lead in Pennsylvania, and has a lead in Indiana, which holds its primary the following week. Together this would keep Trump on a path to securing the nomination: If he does manage to win the bulk of delegates in […] Read more »

Model Shows Clinton as Favorite in Most of Tuesday’s Primaries

Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton appears to be a solid favorite in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania, as well as a marginal favorite in Connecticut. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders appears to be a favorite in Rhode […] Read more »

CBS News online poll: GOP voters divided as April primaries loom

Ted Cruz has the lead in Wisconsin as its primary nears, up 43 percent to 37 percent over Donald Trump in an electorate that plays to Cruz’s strengths, where Republicans are apt to call themselves “very” conservative and Cruz seems poised to take advantage. … In Trump’s home state of […] Read more »