U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf led their likely Republican opponents by wide margins in the first major independent poll of their election races this year. Casey, a Democrat, had the support of 43 percent of voters compared to 25 percent for Rep. Lou Barletta, R-11, Hazleton, according […] Read more »
It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again in Southwest Pennsylvania
… This year’s midterms don’t have to be a referendum on President Donald Trump any more than 2010 was about putting limits on Barack Obama’s presidential power. They need to be about what congressional Republicans have accomplished, with an emphasis on tax reform, jobs and wages. That means talking specifics […] Read more »
What Happened in Pennsylvania’s 18th and What It Means for Democrats in November
… This post offers a quick rundown of the data in PA-18 and speculates about the consequences for Republicans in November. How did Lamb win? What does that mean for the 2018 midterms? First, the obvious. Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional district is ruby red — or so we thought. Donald Trump […] Read more »
Conor Lamb Ran as a Change Agent in PA-18. So Are Lots of Other Democrats
A lot of ink has been spilled and much TV airtime has been cluttered with opinions and analysis of the PA-18 special election. Some good. Some bad. Some ridiculous and overblown. I’m not interested in rehashing or debunking all of it. Nor do I think it’s healthy to read too […] Read more »
Are Republicans in More Special Trouble?
Conor Lamb’s (D, PA-18) apparent victory in a special House election in western Pennsylvania isn’t as much of a disaster for Republicans as Sen. Doug Jones’ (D-AL) win in a special election in Alabama was in December. But both results, combined with bigger-picture factors, suggest widespread Republican weakness as the […] Read more »
The Modern History of Special Election Swing
Relative to the 2016 presidential election result there, the PA-18 special had a large swing in the Democratic direction. Looking at the two-party vote, Trump won the district by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, meaning the district’s lean […] Read more »