The political debate has begun on the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran, and it is falling almost exactly along partisan lines. Nearly all the Republican presidential candidates are against it (Rand Paul has not issued a statement). Jeb Bush, who is more moderate than most of his fellow Republicans, […] Read more »
Will Trust Be a Deal-Breaker for Hillary Clinton?
One topic that often comes up in serious conversations about 2016 presidential politics is whether questions about Hillary Clinton’s trustworthiness will be her undoing. Not surprisingly, many of her fiercest critics passionately want this to be the case, but even some of her closest advisers are known to be very […] Read more »
African American Voters: The Overlooked Key To 2016
Many analysts have devoted endless hours to pondering the Republican Party’s woes with Latino voters and prescriptions for how the party can fix them in time for 2016. … But while Latinos are no doubt an important persuasion target for the GOP, they may not be the minority group most […] Read more »
The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think
… We like to think that presidential elections are dramatic fall campaigns pitting party against party, but the truth is that the most decisive moments often occur long before the general election kicks off. If history is any guide, the outcome of next year’s presidential campaign will likely be determined […] Read more »
Why the GOP Should Worry About Hillary Clinton’s Poll Numbers
With the 2016 general election a little less than 16 months away, key polling data for Hillary Clinton shows that her numbers look a lot like President Barack Obama’s in 2012 — and could be bad news for Republicans. The American Communities Project took the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal […] Read more »
The Trump and the Restless
I promised myself I wouldn’t blog about Donald Trump. But Ron Fournier’s piece about Trump’s candidacy calls for a facts-infused response. Fournier claims that Trump’s candidacy signals “restlessness” in the electorate, specifically among protest voters. There are three main problems with this analysis: lack of specific data about citizens’ actual […] Read more »