The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has put enormous new pressure on the two candidates in a presidential race already roiled by a global pandemic and a summer of civil unrest, raising the prospect of a contentious Senate confirmation battle waged side by side with the campaign. The skirmishing […] Read more »
Trump likely can’t win without veteran support
… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »
Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?
The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »
Data show Trump didn’t ‘build’ a great economy. He inherited it.
President Donald Trump’s campaign speeches can careen into many topics, but his primary appeal continues to be that he built “the greatest economy that we’ve had in our history” before the COVID-19 pandemic and he can do it again. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows he has an […] Read more »
4 ways Biden’s running mate could help — or hurt — the Democratic ticket
We know that Joe Biden’s vice presidential pick will be a female and that the announcement is coming very soon. Beyond that, it’s a mystery, though several contenders have emerged, including Sen. Kamala Harris, Rep. Karen Bass and Susan Rice, among others. Presidential nominees of the past have taken very […] Read more »
In nearly every swing state at this point, Biden is outperforming Obama and Clinton
… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »