… As of mid-August, a Pew survey found Trump beating Hillary Clinton 63-17 among white religious conservatives. Evangelical Christians may not approve of Trump, but they are among his strongest constituencies in this year’s campaign. The Christian right has found common ground with Trump’s less devout supporters on a wide […] Read more »
Hillary Clinton Is Getting Surprisingly Little Extra Lift From Blacks and Hispanics
The conventional wisdom holds that sweeping demographic shifts propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. So here’s a simple question: Why haven’t these demographics swept Hillary Clinton to a big polling lead and a smooth glide to victory? Donald J. Trump, after all, has alienated just about every growing demographic group […] Read more »
Obama’s soaring approval numbers are very good news for Hillary Clinton
The last time that President Obama’s approval rating in Washington Post-ABC News polling was as high as it is in our new survey was six months after he took office. At 58 percent, Obama’s approval is 15 points higher than it was on the eve of the 2014 elections, where […] Read more »
Clinton holds lead over Trump in new poll, but warning signs emerge
Hillary Clinton maintains a lead over Donald Trump, but lagging interest among some of her supporters poses a potential turnout challenge for Democrats with less than nine weeks before Election Day, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. CONT. Scott Clement & Dan Balz, Washington Post Read more »
Qualifications, Consistency Help Clinton, While Turnout Keeps Trump in the Hunt
Advantages on qualifications and consistency and help from an increasingly popular incumbent are aiding Hillary Clinton in the presidential race — but with weaknesses sufficient to keep Donald Trump well in the hunt in the campaign’s closing months. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC News Read more »
How Obama will lift Clinton to victory, barely
At the American Political Science Association (APSA) meetings last week in Philadelphia, Charles Tien and I released our presidential election forecast, as did other political science forecasters. We called a narrow win for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, with 51 percent of the popular vote share (the Democratic and Republican total). […] Read more »