Fifty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters aged 18 to 29 say they will “definitely vote” this fall, well below the current national average of 78% and far below 18- to 29-year-olds’ voting intentions in the fall of 2004 and 2008. [cont.] Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »
Rocky Ground
… That sense of sustained struggle provides the yardstick for judging Obama. Those defecting from him, while generally unconvinced that Romney could do better, seem ready to simply try another approach. Those sticking with Obama believe that he’s produced all that can be asked against the headwinds of a turbulent […] Read more »
Obama’s bane is his big-government image
… More than one-third of Americans (37 percent) in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll say Obama’s views on the size and role of government are a major reason to oppose him, while 26 percent say they are a reason to support him. Among independents, Obama’s government views are negative […] Read more »
Obama Holds Lead, Romney Trails on Most Issues
Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. … The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act appears to have had little effect on the 2012 race. But the decision has had a substantial impact on […] Read more »
Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men
The new Quinnipiac University and ABC/Washington Post national surveys out this week converge on one key conclusion: as the election nears, President Obama is sinking to historic lows among the group most consistently hostile to him. Throughout his career on the national stage, Obama has struggled among white men without […] Read more »
Fasten Your Seat Belts: Polarization, Weak Economy Forecast Very Close Election
… The estimates for the revised model indicate that in the current era of partisan polarization, the advantage enjoyed by a first-term incumbent is less than half of what it was earlier — about 2.5 percentage points instead of 5.2 percentage points. This is not only a statistically significant difference; it […] Read more »